Quick answer: Monthly cups = drinks per day × days open × the share of each size and temperature × (1 − dine-in share) × (1 + waste allowance). A café selling 150 drinks a day, 30 days a month, with 10% dine-in and a 3% waste allowance uses about 4,170 disposable cups a month. Split that by size using your POS data, add matching lids and sleeves, and adjust for the seasons.
Key takeaways
- Start from your POS mix by size and temperature.
- Subtract dine-in drinks served in ceramic or glass.
- Add a small waste allowance (spills, double-cups, damage).
- Re-forecast seasonally. Summer shifts hot to cold.
The forecasting formula
Monthly cups (per size) = drinks/day × days open × size share × (1 − dine-in share) × (1 + waste allowance)
Then match lids to every cup and sleeves to the hot sizes you sleeve.
A worked example
Illustrative: 150 drinks/day, open 30 days, 10% dine-in, 3% waste.
Total disposable cups = 150 × 30 × 0.90 × 1.03 ≈ 4,172 per month
| Cup | Share of to-go drinks | Monthly cups |
|---|---|---|
| 8 oz hot | 15% | ~626 |
| 12 oz hot | 30% | ~1,252 |
| 16 oz hot | 22% | ~918 |
| 16 oz cold | 20% | ~834 |
| 20 oz cold | 13% | ~542 |
Lids: if 12 and 16 oz hot share a 90 mm lid, that's ~2,170 lids from one SKU. See our hot cup sizes guide.
Sleeves: if you sleeve all 16 oz hot and half of 12 oz, that's about 1,544 sleeves a month.
Quick estimator by volume
Illustrative, assuming 30 days open, 10% dine-in and a 3% waste allowance:
| Drinks per day | Disposable cups per month | Approx. lids per month |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | ~2,780 | ~2,780 |
| 150 | ~4,170 | ~4,170 |
| 250 | ~6,950 | ~6,950 |
| 400 | ~11,120 | ~11,120 |
If you serve iced drinks with straws instead of sip lids, or offer lidless dine-in cups, adjust lids down accordingly.
Where to get your shares
Your POS sales report by item and modifier for the last 30–90 days is the best source. If you're new, start with a reasonable assumption and correct it after the first two weeks. Our opening inventory guide shows how to set a starting mix.
Seasonality: hot vs. cold
Nationally, cold coffee rises in summer. NCA data show 17% of past-day cups were cold in January 2026, while 21% of past-day drinkers had cold coffee in the summer survey. Your café may swing much more, especially in warm climates or with younger customers. Re-run your forecast for:
- Spring ramp (iced drinks climbing)
- Summer peak (cold cups and dome lids up)
- Fall and holiday (hot cups, sleeves and seasonal cups up)
Hidden usage to account for
- Double-cupping very hot drinks (a sign you may need sleeves or double-wall cups; see our double-wall vs single-wall comparison)
- Remakes and spills
- Samples and staff drinks
- Damaged sleeves of cups in storage
Turn the forecast into orders
- Convert monthly cups to cases using your supplier's case counts.
- Set par levels by size: weekly use × (lead time + days between counts) + safety stock.
- Put steady sizes on recurring delivery.
Put your cup forecast on autopilot
Affogato Reserve delivers branded cups, lids and sleeves on a recurring schedule sized to your forecast, adjusted as the seasons change. See cups or talk to us.
Frequently asked questions
How many cups does a coffee shop use per day?
Roughly one disposable cup per to-go drink, minus drinks served in ceramic, plus waste and double-cupping. A shop selling 150 drinks a day with 10% dine-in might use around 140–150 disposable cups per day across sizes.
How do I forecast cup orders by size?
Use your POS sales mix by size and temperature for the last 30 days, multiply by projected daily drinks, adjust for seasonality and add a waste allowance.
Do iced drinks change cup usage?
Yes. Cold drinks shift usage from hot cups to cold cups and lids, and often to larger sizes, so summer orders look different from winter orders.
Sources
- StoneX, “Coffee Remains America's Favorite Beverage, NCA Report Finds.”
- The Shelby Report, “Coffee Trend Survey: Specialty Hits Record, Grocery Share Slips.”
Sources checked October 2026. Statistics are reported as published by each source.