Quick answer: Size your opening order from a projected drinks-per-day number, split by size and by hot versus cold, multiplied by the days you need to cover (opening weeks plus supplier lead time), plus a buffer of around 20–25% for grand-opening traffic. Round up to full cases, match lids to every cup size, and switch to par-level reordering once you have a week or two of real sales.
Key takeaways
- Start with drinks per day, then split by size and hot vs. cold.
- Cover your opening period plus lead time, plus a buffer.
- Lids, sleeves and straws follow the cups. Don't let them be an afterthought.
- After week one, replace guesses with real sales.
Step 1: Project drinks per day
Build three scenarios:
| Scenario | Example (illustrative) | Use it for |
|---|---|---|
| Conservative | 120 drinks/day | Cash planning |
| Base | 150 drinks/day | Your main order |
| Opening week | 190 drinks/day | Buffer for grand-opening traffic |
Base your numbers on comparable shops, foot traffic, peak hours and seating, not on hope.
Step 2: Split by hot vs. cold and by size
Nationally, hot drinks dominate in winter: 78% of past-day coffee cups were hot in January 2026, while cold coffee rises in summer, reaching 21% of past-day drinkers in the June survey. National averages aren't your shop, though. Cafés with iced-forward menus, warm climates or young customers often sell far more cold drinks. Pick a split that fits your menu and season, then correct it after week one.
Illustrative split for a 150-drink day, opening in late fall:
| Cup | Share | Drinks/day |
|---|---|---|
| 8 oz hot | 15% | 22.5 |
| 12 oz hot | 30% | 45 |
| 16 oz hot | 20% | 30 |
| 16 oz cold | 20% | 30 |
| 20 oz cold | 10% | 15 |
| Dine-in ceramic (no disposable) | 5% | 7.5 |
Step 3: Decide how many days to cover
Days to cover = opening period + supplier lead time + review gap
Example: you want to cover your first 14 days, your supplier needs 5 days to deliver a reorder, and you'll place your first reorder on day 7 once you see real data. Covering 14 days with your opening order gives you room to reorder on day 7 and receive by day 12.
Step 4: Do the math
Units = drinks/day × share × days to cover × (1 + buffer)
Using the base case (150/day), 14 days and a 25% buffer:
| Item | Calculation | Units | Typical case pack* | Cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 oz hot cups | 22.5 × 14 × 1.25 | 394 | 1,000 | 1 |
| 12 oz hot cups | 45 × 14 × 1.25 | 788 | 1,000 | 1 |
| 16 oz hot cups | 30 × 14 × 1.25 | 525 | 1,000 | 1 |
| 80 mm lids (8 oz) | match 8 oz cups | 394 | 1,000 | 1 |
| 90 mm lids (12 + 16 oz) | (45 + 30) × 14 × 1.25 | 1,313 | 1,000 | 2 |
| Sleeves (16 oz hot + half of 12 oz) | (30 + 22.5) × 14 × 1.25 | 919 | 1,000 | 1 |
| 16 oz cold cups | 30 × 14 × 1.25 | 525 | 1,000 | 1 |
| 20 oz cold cups | 15 × 14 × 1.25 | 263 | 1,000 | 1 |
| Cold lids (if 16 and 20 oz share a lid) | (30 + 15) × 14 × 1.25 | 788 | 1,000 | 1 |
| Straws | match cold cups | 788 | varies | — |
*Case packs vary by supplier and size. Use your supplier's actual counts.
Notice that the shared 90 mm lid makes the 12 and 16 oz hot lids one line item. See our hot cup sizes guide for how rim sizes simplify ordering.
Step 5: Don't forget the "small stuff"
| Item | How to estimate |
|---|---|
| Carriers | Share of orders with 2+ drinks |
| Napkins | Roughly one or two per order, more with food |
| Stir sticks | Drip and Americano orders, condiment bar |
| Pastry bags and boxes | Projected food sales by item |
| Receipt and label paper | POS volume |
| Cleaning chemicals | Espresso detergent, sanitizer, test strips |
| Spare blind baskets and gaskets | One of each per group |
Step 6: Milk and syrups
Milk: project milk drinks per day × ounces per drink (include waste), then cover the days between deliveries plus a buffer day. Milk must be held at 41°F or below, so your par is limited by refrigeration space. Our milk lineup guide includes a worked par-level example.
Syrups: for each flavor, projected flavored drinks × pumps per drink × ounces per pump ÷ ounces per bottle. Start lean on anything beyond vanilla, caramel and mocha until you see real demand.
Step 7: Switch to par levels after week one
Once you have real sales:
- Calculate your actual average daily use for each item.
- Set par = daily use × (lead time + days between counts) + safety stock.
- Count weekly and reorder to par.
- Move steady items onto recurring deliveries.
Opening checklist for supplies
- ☐ Every cup size has a matching lid on order
- ☐ Sleeves fit your hot cup sizes
- ☐ Cold cups, lids and straws match each other
- ☐ Carriers, napkins and stir sticks ordered
- ☐ Pastry packaging sized to your menu
- ☐ Cleaning chemicals and spare parts on the shelf
- ☐ Storage space measured for the whole order
- ☐ First reorder date on the calendar
Need the equipment side too? See our coffee shop equipment checklist, and use our 12 questions for choosing a supplier before you place the order.
Open with Affogato Bean
We help new cafés size and brand their first order: cups, lids, sleeves, napkins, stir sticks, pastry packaging, signage and merch, with design help included and samples credited toward your first order. Then Affogato Reserve takes over with recurring deliveries. See products or talk to us about your opening.
Frequently asked questions
How much inventory should a new coffee shop order?
Order enough to cover your projected opening weeks plus your supplier's lead time and a buffer, typically sized from a projected drinks-per-day number split by size and hot versus cold. Then switch to par-level reordering based on real sales after the first week or two.
How many cups should I order for my coffee shop opening?
Multiply projected daily drinks by the share each cup size is expected to take, by the number of days you're covering, then add a buffer. Cups usually come in cases, so round up to full cases and order matching lids for each size.
How do I estimate how many drinks I'll sell per day?
Use comparable shops, foot traffic, your location's peak hours and your seating. Start with a conservative base case, then plan a higher opening-week number since grand openings often bring extra traffic.
What do coffee shops often forget to order before opening?
Lids in the right sizes, sleeves, straws, carriers for multi-drink orders, napkins, stir sticks, pastry bags, receipt paper, cleaning chemicals, sanitizer test strips and spare blind baskets.
Sources
- StoneX, “Coffee Remains America's Favorite Beverage, NCA Report Finds.”
- NACS, “NCA: Specialty Coffee Consumption Hits Record High (Fall 2026 NCDT).”
- Institute of Child Nutrition, “Food Safety Fact Sheet: Holding Cold Foods.”
Sources checked October 2026. Statistics are reported as published by each source.